National Retail Federation: Total holiday online shopping sales will grow 8%-9% in 2024

The National Retail Federation predicts that winter holiday spending is expected to grow 2.5% to 3.5% in 2024. This would equate to total holiday spending in November and December of between $979.5 billion and $989 billion, compared with $955.6 billion in the same period last year.

“The economy remains fundamentally healthy and continues to maintain momentum heading into the final months of the year,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “The winter holidays are an important tradition for American families, and their spending power continues to be supported by a strong job market and wage growth.”

The main contributor to overall retail sales growth is expected to come from online shopping. Total retail sales, including online and other non-physical store sales, are expected to grow 8% to 9% to $295.1 billion to $297.9 billion. This is up from $273.3 billion last year. In comparison, non-physical store sales last year increased 10.7% from 2022.

“We remain optimistic about economic activity and the pace of growth in the second half of the year,” said Jack Kleinhenz, NRF chief economist. “Household finances are strong, which will drive strong spending ahead of the holiday season, although households will be more cautious in spending.”

As retailers anticipate increased consumer demand during the holiday season, they will need additional employees to support business operations. NRF expects retailers to hire 400,000 to 500,000 seasonal employees this year to support retailers' holiday shopping activities this month. In comparison, last year's seasonal hiring was 509,000.

One difference from last year's holiday shopping season is that the shopping period between Thanksgiving and Christmas will be shortened by five days, for a total of 26 days. Other factors this year may include the economic impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton; the 2024 U.S. presidential election will be held during the winter holidays, but it is almost impossible to measure its impact on current or future spending.