China Tourism Academy: China Outbound Tourism Development Annual Report 2021

The report pointed out that due to the impact of the epidemic, China's outbound tourism was generally stagnant from 2020 to 2021 and was still consolidating at the bottom. Due to effective epidemic prevention and control and smooth policy coordination, the market of mainland tourists to Macau showed obvious signs of recovery, becoming a highlight of outbound tourism. Despite facing great difficulties, the industry has never given up confidence or passively waited. Entrepreneurship and innovation have been ongoing, and outbound tourism destinations have also expressed their firm confidence in China's outbound tourism market with positive actions. Looking ahead to 2022, the pace of recovery of the outbound tourism market depends on the global epidemic prevention and control situation. Some destinations with a good epidemic prevention and control situation and smoother coordination of epidemic prevention and control policies are expected to recover first.

1. Outbound tourism in 2020-2021: from total stagnation to difficult recovery

Under the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, the number of outbound tourists in 2020 was 20.334 million, a year-on-year decrease of 86.9%. In 2021, the number of outbound tourists is predicted to be 25.62 million, a year-on-year recovery of 17% compared with 2019 and a year-on-year increase of 27% compared with 2020. Compared with the scale of over 100 million outbound tourists before the epidemic, outbound tourism is still basically stagnant.

Since January 24, 2020, my country's outbound tourism supply and demand, industry and market have experienced a cliff-like decline. In February 2020, the number of outbound tourists in my country dropped sharply from more than 10 million in January to less than 600,000. As group outbound tourism was completely stopped, only a few tourists traveled in the following months, and the overall number of outbound tourists has always hovered at an extremely low level.

From the perspective of outbound destination structure, Asia continues to occupy the first place in intercontinental destinations, accounting for 95.45%. It is followed by Europe, America, Oceania and Africa. In general, shorter-distance destinations are less affected by the impact of the epidemic. The year-on-year decrease in tourists to Asia, Europe, Oceania, America and Africa is between 70% and 95%. Among them, Asia has the smallest decrease, while Oceania has the largest decrease. Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan are still the most important destinations for outbound tourism, accounting for more than 80% of the share.

The top 15 outbound tourist destinations are Macao, China, Hong Kong, China, Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, Thailand, Cambodia, the United States, Singapore, Taiwan, China, Malaysia, the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada and Indonesia, with declines ranging from 66% to 98%. The mainland tourist market to Macao, China has shown clear signs of recovery.

Outbound tourism continues to bear the pressure of the ever-changing global epidemic prevention and control situation. The current global epidemic prevention and control situation remains severe and complex. Overseas epidemics have been rising and falling, and domestic epidemics have sporadically occurred. my country is still in the process of dynamic zeroing out of the epidemic, and the occurrence of imported cases from abroad has not stopped. All regions still need to strictly prevent and control, which has brought uncertainty to the future recovery of outbound tourism.

In the short term, the epidemic prevention and control situation is directly related to the possibility of restarting outbound tourism. Countries and regions are promoting COVID-19 vaccination in an orderly manner and working hard to revive the tourism industry. In countries and regions where the epidemic is better controlled, the flow of people and travel are beginning to try to get back on track.

In the long run, the epidemic and related prevention and control measures have a direct impact on outbound tourism and bring about a chain reaction. If the global epidemic prevention and control situation remains uncertain for a long time, it will be difficult to fully prepare for the recovery of outbound tourism, and it will face the risks and difficulties of repeated impacts of the epidemic.

Vaccines are a key variable in the prevention and control of COVID-19. The vaccination rate and efficiency of vaccines affect the recovery of the tourism industry. At present, my country's epidemic prevention and control measures have become normalized, including vaccination, rapid nucleic acid testing, digital health codes, issuing vaccine passports, wearing masks, avoiding crowds, etc., which provide experience and technical preparation for the recovery of outbound tourism in the future. The gradual recovery of domestic tourism under the normalized prevention and control of the epidemic has also brought confidence to the future restart of outbound tourism.

In the future, epidemic prevention and control measures will become normalized, and Chinese outbound tourists will have higher requirements for safety, health and convenience. The outbound tourism industry is trying to adapt to this new environment through technological and model innovation.

II. Efforts and innovations of the industry in the process of shifting from outbound tourism to domestic tourism

In 2021, under the new pattern of "dual circulation" at home and abroad, the substitution effect of the domestic tourism cycle on outbound tourism is obvious, and the previous outbound tourism demand will find room for release within the country. This is reflected in the formation of market habits. More domestic tourist destinations have entered the field of vision of tourists, and domestic tourism has become an option and substitute with important competitiveness. The psychological model related to it has also undergone a significant change.

With the rapid improvement of domestic epidemic prevention barriers and the full resumption of work and production, the recovery of the domestic tourism market has accelerated, providing solid support for the persistence and innovation of outbound tourism market players.

During the pandemic, outbound tourism enterprises did not wait for government assistance, but took the initiative to face new demands, develop new products, and embrace market recovery and industrial transformation. In the cases of APEC small and medium-sized enterprises and individuals using digital tools, and in a series of important meetings such as the China Tourism Group Development Forum, the China-Africa English-speaking Countries Tourism Cooperation Seminar, the China-Europe Tourism Trend Seminar, and the China-Korea Tourism Cooperation Seminar, we can see the persistence and innovation of outbound tourism market players. Outbound tourism market players have shifted from overseas business to domestic business, from tourism services to comprehensive services, and actively embraced the digitalization process such as online broadcasting, immersive experience, and intelligent product development and promotion. China Tourism Group is building a new landmark of Hainan International Tourism Consumption Center with the support of offshore duty-free and online business. China Tourism Group's duty-free business has jumped to the first place in the world. Ctrip has transformed from a pure tourism transaction platform to a "content + transaction" platform, and launched the Planet Account, which integrates the three functions of community, live broadcast and product flagship store. With content as the protagonist, it not only connects the local customs and customs of tourist destinations with merchant products, but also actively triggers users' travel needs. Mafengwo upgraded and transferred its products and services that originally matched overseas scenarios to domestic markets. Focusing on time-saving and professionalism, it created a complete guide brand "Polaris Guide" to provide tourists with new options for travel and entertainment.

5G, big data, artificial intelligence and other technologies are becoming more and more closely integrated with the tourism industry, which also provides a beneficial boost to the recovery of outbound tourism in the future. During the epidemic, comprehensive reservations, virtual reality, digital identity recognition services, contactless check-in, and dynamic regulation of tourist flows based on big data have been widely used, which not only ensures the safety of tourists' travel, improves travel efficiency and satisfaction, but also provides new ideas for product service innovation and process optimization for market players.

China's population size and structure are the long-term fundamentals for the development of outbound tourism. The large and steadily growing population size and the still advantageous population structure have driven the formation of stable development expectations for China's outbound tourism market. In recent years, China's family structure has undergone major changes. The size of households has become smaller, the number of single-child families has increased, and the phenomenon of fewer children has become more common. The impact of these changes in family structure on outbound tourism demand is being reflected in changes in travel possibilities, product and service preferences, and price sensitivity. In 2020, the urbanization rate of my country's permanent population exceeded 60%. The increase in urban population and the prosperity of urban economy have also provided the necessary foundation for the development of tourism activities including outbound tourism. While amplifying the influence of outbound tourism, new market sources such as "small town youth" have also been opened up.

3. Chinese tourists are still willing to travel abroad, but their safety expectations are rising

Safety, short distance and companionship will become the focus of outbound tourism in the future. "Safety issues in outbound tourism" is the focus of respondents, and the main factors affecting outbound travel are "safety risks" and "lack of time". Survey data show that the premise for outbound tourism is that the epidemic is fully under control. 82.8% of respondents will only travel when they are sure that there are no new crown infections in a certain destination. Respondents are more inclined to avoid crowded tourist destinations. 81.6% of respondents said that they would choose domestic travel rather than outbound travel in the future. 71.7% of respondents are reluctant to choose air travel due to the outbreak of the new crown.

If there is an opportunity to travel abroad, the largest number of people would choose "traveling with the whole family" and "traveling with some family members", while fewer people would choose "traveling alone" and "traveling with strangers".

The characteristics of online information channels have been further strengthened. The channels for respondents to obtain information related to outbound travel are mostly "online social media" and "tourism-related websites". The epidemic has a huge impact on whether respondents choose travel agencies, and the options for outbound travel have become more diversified. The proportion of those who choose to participate in outbound travel with travel agencies is only 25.08%, a decrease of 37.79% compared with 2019.

Most respondents expect their future outbound travel to last less than a week. More than 60% of respondents plan to stay for 1-7 days, of which nearly 50% plan to stay for 4-7 days. Less than 10% of respondents plan to stay for more than 15 days.

IV. Recovery Outlook in 2022

There is great uncertainty in the development of outbound tourism. The haze of the epidemic has not yet dissipated worldwide, and the epidemic situation in different regions and countries has been ups and downs, and even prolonged. In the global COVID-19 prevention and control process, imbalances remain prominent. The prevention and control requirements between different destinations, including border control and flight arrangements, are tightened and loosened from time to time, and the efficiency of policy coordination between them needs to be improved. The safety needs of cross-border tourism cannot be fully guaranteed in the short term. In addition, unilateralism and protectionism that undermine facilitation in the name of epidemic prevention and control are becoming increasingly active. The environment facing the development of outbound tourism is severe and complex, and uncertainty is prominent.

The recovery and development of outbound tourism in the future depends on the combined effect of multiple factors. The life safety and physical health of the people must be put first. Safety is the most important foundation and prerequisite for the future recovery of outbound tourism. The future recovery of outbound tourism depends first on whether the foundation of safety and development is solid. It must be ensured to be stable and cannot be opened for the sake of opening. Although the epidemic continues to hit outbound tourism hard and suppresses the recovery of the market, confidence and hope for outbound tourism have always been there. The time for the recovery of the outbound tourism market depends not only on the speed of vaccination worldwide, the development and promotion of targeted drugs, and the effectiveness of preventing and controlling mutant viruses, but also on the people's cognition and reassurance of the safety and security of outbound tourism. The recovery path of the outbound tourism market depends not only on the efforts and innovations of the market players of outbound tourism to cope with changes in the social and economic structure, the progress of scientific and technological development, and the changes in the psychological model of outbound tourists, but also on the facilitation process based on the "International Travel Health Certificate". The epidemic has changed the mental model of tourists and posed more challenges to the supply of public services and products. Short-distance, surrounding and controllable have become important references for outbound tourists to choose destinations. Macau, Hong Kong and short-distance destinations in Asia will thus gain clearer development opportunities.

For those who are related to outbound tourism, sufficient preparation is needed. At the government level: it is necessary to continuously evaluate the epidemic prevention and control situation, strengthen communication and policy coordination. Explore the possibility of opening up outbound tourism on the premise of ensuring safety; evaluate the possibility of opening up arrangements for outbound tourism, including "tourism bubbles" and "tourism sandboxes", and promote the implementation of specific plans; introduce and encourage the digitalization process, and promote the use of advanced technologies in epidemic prevention and control and outbound tourism recovery; increase efforts to alleviate difficulties and encourage relevant market players to adopt various methods to overcome difficulties. At the industrial level: destinations and market players need to continue to innovate in model optimization, market promotion and product development. Changes in the consumption behavior characteristics of outbound tourists and their expectations for future outbound tourism, the reshaping and iteration of the supply chain, and the increasingly in-depth process of industrial integration will provide useful references for the actions of relevant parties such as overseas destinations and market players.