The strongest winter typhoon "Lei" may reach super typhoon level. Can it become the last typhoon to land in my country?

Typhoon Lei, the 22nd typhoon this year, has intensified into a severe tropical storm today (December 14), and may even reach super typhoon level. It will enter the South China Sea later, and may move northward and approach southern China. Why are there typhoons in winter? Will Lei be the last typhoon to land in my country? Hu Xiao, chief meteorological analyst at China Weather Network, explains.

Winter typhoons are rare, with only two landing in my country since 1949

At 14:00 yesterday, this year's 22nd typhoon "Lei" was formed in the northwest Pacific Ocean. This morning, "Lei" strengthened to a strong tropical storm. The Central Meteorological Observatory predicts that "Lei" will move northwestward at a speed of about 20 kilometers per hour, and its intensity will continue to increase. The strongest typhoon may reach the strong typhoon or super typhoon level (14-16, 45-52 meters per second), and gradually approach the coast of the northern part of Mindanao Island in the Philippines. After passing through the southern part of the Philippine Islands on the 17th, it will move into the southeastern waters of the South China Sea around noon on the 18th.

December is already winter in terms of climate, so why are there still typhoons?

According to Hu Xiao, chief meteorological analyst of China Weather Network, although many places on land in my country have entered winter in December, the air temperature and sea temperature are still high on the tropical ocean, which meets the conditions for the formation of typhoons. Generally speaking, there are not many typhoons generated in winter (December to February of the following year), with an average of less than 2 per year. These three months happen to be across the New Year, so they also include the earliest first typhoon and the latest last typhoon. Among them, the earliest first typhoon was Typhoon No. 1 "Alice" in 1979, which was generated at 08:00 on January 1; the latest last typhoon was Typhoon No. 23 "Soulik" in 2000, which was generated at 08:00 on December 30.

The path of Typhoon Nanmadol in 2004. Source: Central Meteorological Observatory Typhoon Network

There are not many typhoons generated in winter, and even fewer land in my country. Hu Xiao said that in winter, the heat in the northern hemisphere decreases further, the sea temperature continues to drop, the subtropical high pressure retreats southward, the conditions in the typhoon generation source deteriorate, and the cold air in the north is active, which is not conducive to typhoon landing. Therefore, typhoons that land in my country in winter are very rare. Since 1949, there have been only two, namely Typhoon Irma No. 27 in 1974, which landed in Taishan, Guangdong on December 2, and Typhoon Nanmadol in 2004, which landed in Pingtung, Taiwan on December 4.

It remains to be seen whether "Rey" will land in my country as it weakens as it moves northward

Typhoon Lei will steadily move westward in the next few days and will enter the South China Sea. Will it land in my country? Hu Xiao introduced that after entering the South China Sea, Lei will have relatively large variables. From the 21st to the 22nd, it may be relatively close to South China. However, due to the deterioration of sea temperature and other conditions when moving north, the closer it is to the mainland, the weaker its intensity will be. As for whether it will eventually land or dissipate in the northern part of the South China Sea, we need to wait and see. If Lei lands, it will become the latest typhoon to land in my country since meteorological records began.

From the perspective of impact, my country's southern sea area will have obvious wind and rain weather from the evening of the 17th. If "Rey" later moves more northerly, it may bring some precipitation weather to southern China, which will be beneficial to alleviate the local meteorological drought and reduce the risk of forest fires.