Mastercard: Retail sales in the 2024 holiday shopping season will increase by 3.8% year-on-year

U.S. retail sales excluding autos increased 3.8% year-over-year from Nov. 1 to Dec. 24, according to preliminary analysis from Mastercard. The survey measures in-store and online retail sales, represents all payment types, and is not adjusted for inflation.

Key retail trends throughout the holiday season include:

The Most “Value” Time of Year – This year, empowered consumers sought value at every turn, responding to promotions during November and Black Friday shopping and filling their baskets by December 24. Overall retail sales increased 3.8% compared to 2023, with the final five days of the holiday season accounting for 10% of all holiday spending.

Balanced Shopping Baskets - Consumer demand for experiences such as dining out strengthened during the holiday season, with restaurant spending up 6.3% year-over-year. Additionally, merchandise spending growth increased this season compared to last year, with apparel (3.6%), jewelry (4.0%) and electronics (3.7%) being notable gifts.

Clicking all the way - This year consumers are increasingly embracing digital-first shopping, with e-commerce, curbside pickup and delivery being the most popular shopping methods during the holiday season. Online retail sales increased 6.7% year-over-year, while in-store sales increased 2.9%. Notably, the apparel industry saw strong performance in e-commerce sales, with online shopping increasing 6.7% compared to last year.

Digitally Savvy Shopping Cities – While many Americans shopped online during the holiday season, some cities were particularly fond of e-commerce. Cities like Tampa (10.6%) and Phoenix (10.0%) led the way with double-digit growth, followed by Minneapolis (8.9%), Dallas (8.4%), Charlotte (7.9%), Orlando (7.8%), and Houston (7.6%), which saw e-commerce sales far exceed the national total by 2023.