Adobe: 2021 US Black Friday deals lower than previous years

Black Friday sales in the U.S. are becoming lackluster this year . Electronics, sporting goods and appliances are all offering lower discounts than last year, while tools and home improvement categories are offering no discounts at all, according to Adobe's comparison of online price changes in 2020 and 2021 from Oct. 1 to Nov. 6, due to tight inventory, strong consumer spending and soaring inflation.

“You’re not going to see the typical Black Friday promotions this year,” said Gabriella Santaniello, founder of retail consultancy A-Line Partners. “There’s not enough inventory in the channel for anyone to run deep enough promotions.”

Supply chain issues during the pandemic have left inventories running low, leaving the retail industry betting on offsetting inflation during the all-important shopping season by cutting discounts and cutting back on deals without hurting consumer demand. But the risk of that strategy is that weak promotions and out-of-stock goods could cause consumers to spend less.

“This is probably one of the least promotional periods we’ve seen in a while,” said Brian Yarbrough, retail analyst at Edward Jones. “We’re facing an inventory problem and demand is the strongest it’s been in years. Even if there are a lot of deals in this year, you’re not going to lose as much profit as you would in the past.”

Shorter promotions

Of course, American consumers can still find bargains online and in stores around Thanksgiving (November 25). Retailers have taught consumers to look forward to the shopping season every year, and many retailers worry that they will lose market share if they don't have some preferential measures to attract consumers.

“If retailers had incentives last year, there’s a big risk not to do so this year,” said Marshal Cohen, chief industry adviser at research firm NPD Group. “The difference is this year’s incentives won’t last as long.”

Walmart (WMT.US) is extending last year's month-long Black Friday sales with specials on air fryers, TVs, Lego toys and trampolines, while shopping sites are touting discounts on similar items from Amazon (AMZN.US) and many other products.

Target (TGT.US) launched its "Early Black Friday Deals" on October 31, discounting wireless headphones, laptops and coffee makers, and will offer new deals every week to provide the best prices during the shopping season. Best Buy (BBY.US) will launch additional promotions on November 19, the week before Thanksgiving.

Although the publicity and activities of major retailers make Black Friday look no different from usual, in fact, the industry is looking at a shopping season with smaller discounts. Gabriella Santaniello said: "Retailers will not sell goods at such low prices. They may say it is a bargain in the advertisement, but shoppers will not be satisfied with it."

ThredUp CEO James Reinhart said that with "no discounts at all" from big retailers, smaller retailers may also be less aggressive in pricing. "Historically, you have to have heavy promotions around the holidays to compete with the discounts from the big retailers. Now that they are discounting less, we can also discount less."

Zhitong Finance Network