Adobe: US online sales to reach $221.8 billion in 2023 holiday season

Adobe released its online shopping forecast for the 2023 holiday season, and this year's holiday shopping season (November 1 to December 31) will reach $221.8 billion in the United States, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. In the 2022 shopping season, consumers spent $211.7 billion online, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. Unprecedented discounts and the flexible spending method of "buy now, pay later" (BNPL) are expected to drive $17 billion in online spending ($14.5 billion in 2022, an increase of 16.9%).

Cyber ​​Week (a shopping period that includes Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday) is expected to drive $37.2 billion in online spending, up 5.4% year-over-year and accounting for 16.8% of holiday season sales.

Discounts are expected to hit record highs this season

Adobe expects record-breaking discounts this holiday season, up to 35% off list price. Of the 18 categories Adobe tracks, toys, electronics, and apparel are expected to offer the biggest discounts. Toys are expected to have discounts of 35% of the price (34% in 2022); electronics will have discounts of 30% (25% in 2022); and apparel will have discounts of 25% (19% in 2022). Other categories with notable discounts include sporting goods (24%), televisions (22%), and furniture/bedding (19%).

Buy now, pay later continues to grow

Flexible buy now, pay later (BNPL) payment methods are expected to set a new record this quarter, driving $17 billion in online spending, up 16.9% year-over-year and $2.5 billion more than last year. Adobe expects BNPL spending to reach $9.3 billion in November, making it the biggest month on record. Cyber ​​Monday will be the biggest day for BNPL, with spending of $782 million, surpassing the daily record of Cyber ​​Monday in 2022 ($658 million).

Other insights

• Mobile shopping surpasses PC for the first time: Adobe predicts that 51.2% of online spending will take place on mobile devices this holiday season, a milestone that reflects the improved shopping experience on small screens. Mobile spending will reach a record $113 billion, up 13.7% year-over-year.
• The products expected to be the best-selling products this holiday season: LEGO mini figures, Kanoodle 3D, Barbie movie products, transformation boxes, Nano x Harry Potter, a Tamagotchi cat, and transforming Ariel fashion doll toys.
• E-commerce categories driving growth: Electronics, apparel, furniture/household goods, groceries, and toys will contribute $144.2 billion in spending, more than half of the total spending ($221.8 billion) this quarter.
• Expect earlier shopping this year: The second Prime Day event (October 10-11) and other promotions will drive early discounts and entice consumers to start shopping earlier. The October Prime Day event is expected to bring in $8.1 billion in revenue (up 6.1% year-over-year) with discounts of up to 18%.