Adobe: 2020 Holiday Shopping Season Predictions

Adobe has released a new report, "2020 Holiday Shopping Season Predictions." The main predictions include:

1. COVID-19 will drive online holiday spending and set new e-commerce records

Adobe predicts that online holiday spending will reach $189 billion, up 33% year-over-year. If flu season keeps people from shopping, the potential for online spending could be even higher, reaching $200 billion (up 47% year-over-year).

2. Retailer success or failure – freight

To mitigate shipping, inventory and logistics challenges, retailers will begin discounting in early November to stimulate earlier purchases and demand.

Most consumers are not willing to pay for faster shipping (64%), likely because they expect free shipping during November and December. 75% of respondents consider free shipping an important consideration when shopping online. During the holiday season, the share of orders with free shipping typically increases by 8.6%.

Some consumers are shopping earlier this year to avoid shipping delays. 36% of consumers are likely to choose faster or more expedited shipping even if it means paying for it.

Gift shipments are also expected to increase by 18% this year, with gift wrapping options and gift guides transforming the shopping experience.

3. Black Friday may replace Cyber ​​Monday

Online sales for Black Friday are expected to reach $10 billion this year (up from around $8 billion last year).

49% of consumers will get the best deals on Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday.

4. BOPIS will continue to soar

Retailers that offer the option to buy online and pick up in-store (BOPIS) won Cyber ​​Week 2019 and will continue to benefit during the 2020 holiday shopping season. When the pandemic first hit in April-May of this year, BOPIS orders increased 120% year-over-year.

5. Mobile shopping will continue to gain popularity

Adobe predicts that 42% of consumers will make purchases on their smartphones during this holiday season, increasing spending by an estimated $28 billion.

6. Search engines are very important in promoting online shopping

Search will account for 46.9% of total holiday online shopping revenue this year.

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