National Retail Federation: Holiday season spending to grow 2.5%-3.5% in 2024

The National Retail Federation predicts that winter holiday spending is expected to grow 2.5% to 3.5% in 2024. This would equate to total holiday spending in November and December of between $979.5 billion and $989 billion, compared with $955.6 billion in the same period last year.

“The economy remains fundamentally healthy and continues to maintain momentum heading into the final months of the year,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “The winter holidays are an important tradition for American families, and their spending power continues to be supported by a strong job market and wage growth.”

The holiday forecast is consistent with the NRF's prediction that annual sales in 2024 will increase by 2.5% to 3.5% compared to 2023.

The main contributor to overall retail sales growth is expected to come from online shopping. Total retail sales, including online and other non-physical store sales, are expected to grow 8% to 9% to $295.1 billion to $297.9 billion. This is up from $273.3 billion last year. In comparison, non-physical store sales last year increased 10.7% from 2022.

As retailers anticipate increased consumer demand during the holiday season, they will need additional staff to support business operations. NRF expects retailers to hire 400,000 to 500,000 seasonal employees this year, compared to 509,000 seasonal hires last year.

One difference from last year's holiday shopping season is that the shopping period between Thanksgiving and Christmas will be shortened by five days, to a total of 26 days. Other factors this year may include the economic impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton; although the 2024 U.S. presidential election will be held during the winter holiday season, it is almost impossible to measure its impact on current or future spending.

NRF's holiday forecast is based on economic models of various key economic indicators, including consumer spending, personal disposable income, employment, wages, inflation and retail sales data from previous months. NRF's calculations exclude auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants to focus on core retail. NRF defines the holiday shopping season as November 1 to December 31.