NRF: U.S. holiday retail sales to grow 5.3% year-on-year in 2022

NRF said retail sales during the November-December 2022 holiday season were up 5.3% from 2021 to $936.3 billion, below the National Retail Federation's forecast, due to continued inflation and high interest rates. Despite the lower-than-expected holiday growth, full-year sales were up 7% from 2021 to $4.9 trillion, in line with NRF's forecast of 6%-8% full-year growth.

Holiday retail sales exceeded 2021 ($889.3 billion), and NRF predicts that holiday retail sales in 2022 will increase 6%-8% over 2021, reaching $942.6 billion to $960.4 billion. The growth rate in 2022 is higher than the average holiday sales growth rate of 4.9% over the past 10 years.

The NRF's calculation of retail sales focuses on core retail, excluding auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants, and the NRF defines the holiday period as Nov. 1 to Dec. 31.

Holiday totals, which are not adjusted for inflation, include online and other non-store sales, which rose 9.5% to $261.6 billion. NRF had forecast the category would grow 10%-12% to $262.8 billion to $267.6 billion. Online holiday sales for 2021 were $238.9 billion.

For December alone, retail sales fell 0.6% from November on a seasonally adjusted basis. In contrast, sales fell 0.5% from the previous month in November after a surge in early holiday shopping in October, but were up 5.6% from a year ago.

November-December holiday sales in key industries include:

Online and other non-store sales increased 9.5%.

Sales at grocery and beverage stores rose 7.8%.

Grocery store sales rose 3.8%.

Sporting goods store sales rose 3.5%.

Sales at health and personal care stores rose 2.8%.

Sales at building material and garden supply stores rose 1.5%.

Sales at furniture and home furnishings stores fell 1.1%.

Sales at electronics and appliance stores fell 5.7%.