China Tourism Academy: 2020 China Outbound Tourism Development Report

The report systematically sorts out the development of outbound tourism in 2019 and since the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, analyzes the situation and changes in important aspects such as outbound tourism source areas, destinations, relevant market players and satisfaction, and responds to focus topics that are widely concerned in the industry.

The epidemic suddenly interrupted the smooth development of outbound tourism

China's outbound tourism maintained steady development in 2019. This is reflected in the development speed, as well as the structure of destinations and source markets. In 2019, my country's outbound tourism market continued to grow, reaching 155 million person-times, a year-on-year increase of 3.3% compared to 2018. In 2019, the growth rate of China's outbound tourism market slowed down. In 2019, my country's outbound tourists spent more than US$133.8 billion overseas, a growth rate of more than 2%.

The structure of outbound tourism destinations remains stable. In 2019, my country's outbound tourism destinations are still mainly in Asia, with Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan still the main destinations. Overall, in the structure of my country's outbound tourists, the proportion of tourists to Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan is higher than that of tourists going abroad, but this gap is gradually narrowing. The proportion of Chinese tourists going abroad has been increasing since 2014.

In terms of the proportion of intercontinental destinations in my country's outbound tourism, Asia continues to occupy the first place in intercontinental destinations, followed by Europe, America, Oceania, Africa and other regions. The number of tourists to Asia and Europe has increased. In 2019, the top 15 outbound tourism destinations of China (mainland) are Macao, China, Hong Kong, China, Vietnam, Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Myanmar, the United States, Taiwan, China, Singapore, Malaysia, Russia, Cambodia, the Philippines and Australia.

In 2019, the seasonal changes in my country's outbound tourism market are still obvious, with concentrated peaks, but the peak and low peaks are different from last year. January, May and July in 2019 are the peak seasons for outbound tourism, while September, October and November are the off-seasons. In 2018, the peak season for outbound tourism was July, August and December, and the off-season was May, June and September.

Under the impact of the epidemic, the development of outbound tourism in 2020 has basically stagnated. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the General Administration of Customs, the National Immigration Administration and other units have jointly issued recommendations to advise individuals not to participate in inbound and outbound tourism unless necessary to reduce cross-border movement of people. Starting from New Year's Eve, the focus of the tourism system's work has been adjusted from "prospering the market and ensuring supply" to "stopping group tours, closing scenic spots, and controlling the epidemic." On January 24, the General Office of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism issued the "Emergency Notice on Suspending the Business Activities of Tourism Enterprises to Make All-out Efforts to Prevent and Control Pneumonia Infected by the New Coronavirus", requiring all "online tourism products" and tour groups to stop traveling, and all travel agencies to suspend group tours and local reception business. The national public security organs' entry and exit management departments have suspended the acceptance, approval, and issuance of visas for mainland residents to travel to Hong Kong and Macau for group tours and individual tours (including Shenzhen's "one trip per week"). So far, travel agencies and online travel companies have not yet resumed inbound and outbound group tours.

Affected by the epidemic, the outbound tourism market is almost stagnant. The year-on-year growth rates of outbound tourists from January to June in 2018 and 2019 were both positive, while the year-on-year growth rates of outbound tourists from January to June in 2020 were both negative.

The epidemic has temporarily interrupted the development of China's outbound tourism market, but the efforts of relevant parties have never stopped. The cultural and tourism departments have taken active actions. While resolutely protecting the life safety and physical health of outbound tourists and safeguarding their legitimate rights and interests, they have also made efforts from the industrial end, and have successively introduced policies to support tourism enterprises, such as temporarily returning travel agency quality deposits, resuming provincial tourism business, opening scenic spots by appointment, and adjusting the use of tourism development funds. They have guided local tourism departments and industry organizations such as tourism chambers of commerce and associations, and actively coordinated and strived for favorable fiscal, financial, industrial, and investment policies and job stabilization subsidies. These policies and measures have directly or indirectly enhanced the confidence of outbound tourism market players and enhanced their ability to survive and develop, which is beneficial to the recovery and revitalization of outbound tourism.

Long-term factors in the outbound tourism market remain stable, and the development foundation of outbound tourism remains strong

In recent years, the achievements of China's economic and social development have strongly promoted the expansion of the outbound tourism market. From 2010 to 2019, my country's GDP has maintained a sustained growth and the economy has been stable. Despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, my country's national economy has maintained strong resilience and a firm growth momentum. In the first three quarters of 2020, GDP grew by 0.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate successfully turned from negative to positive, and major economic indicators showed a positive trend. These show that the economic support for the development of outbound tourism is still strong.

It can be seen that the potential travel power of source areas of various provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) remains convergent, the outbound tourism market in typical cities remains stable, and the outbound tourism development environment including transportation, visas, payment, language environment, etc. continues to improve, which is conducive to the long-term improvement of outbound tourism.

Competition among destinations is reflected in the satisfaction of Chinese outbound tourists. In 2019, there was still a more intense competition among destinations in terms of satisfaction, and this competition will be more obvious after the epidemic.

Under the epidemic, outbound destinations and related market players are working hard

On the one hand, major outbound destinations have taken measures such as closing borders and cutting off transportation to prevent and control the impact of the epidemic, and on the other hand, they have supported and helped tourism companies, including those that target the Chinese market. At the same time, they insist on carrying out various forms of contact and promotion, striving to maintain a more advantageous position in the future competition in the Chinese market. These measures, together with the epidemic prevention and control measures taken by our country, have produced multiple effects. Although outbound tourism activities with China as the source of tourists have temporarily lost the basic conditions for development and have basically stopped, outbound destinations are also using actions to show their confidence in the Chinese outbound tourism market and strive to prepare for the arrival of Chinese tourists in the future.

Outbound market players are also taking active actions to protect tourists, preserve vitality and protect the future.

Under the epidemic, Chinese outbound tourism companies responded quickly, actively saving themselves, planning and preparing for the future while protecting the lives and health of tourists and safeguarding their rights. At the beginning of the outbreak, the safety guarantee mechanism was activated immediately, business operations were suspended, and all efforts were made to fight the epidemic. Free refunds and changes were introduced, and major disaster insurance was upgraded to ensure the safety of passengers. Tour leaders and tour guides from all over the world who led groups abroad did their best to purchase epidemic prevention materials abroad, and brought back epidemic prevention supplies produced abroad and meeting medical standards by self-contained or through airlines, alleviating the problem of insufficient epidemic prevention materials at the time.

At the same time, outbound market players tried their best to reduce costs and expenses and strive to survive. During the resumption of work and production, they actively cultivated internal strength, trained employees, and optimized and upgraded the service standards of various businesses. They not only strived to maintain good relationships with destinations and resource parties, but also maintained competitiveness through live broadcasts, online business discussions, and product pre-sales. At the same time, they actively deployed emerging business markets and explored new business models. Some market players tried to switch to the domestic tourism market and focus on potential business modules.

Large tourism groups, travel services represented by outbound travel agencies and OTAs, and investors, resource providers, suppliers, distributors, agents and partners in the outbound tourism industry ecosystem have actively transformed and explored the new normal of the tourism industry after the epidemic, and have carried out a large number of fruitful self-help measures and mutual assistance actions. These actions include both capital and market-level initiatives, as well as live streaming with goods, which has attracted widespread attention from the industry and society. It can be seen that some outbound travel agencies have made efforts "online", targeting the new trend of the Internet celebrity economy, launching online shopping malls, and live streaming with goods. Some have leveraged the Hainan Free Trade Port to lay out tourism cooperation projects. Some are actively studying changes in tourists' mental models, actively developing products, and strengthening employee training, hoping to launch more competitive outbound tourism products.

Despite all the storms, destination satisfaction levels remain stable

In recent years, the satisfaction of outbound tourism destinations has maintained a continuous improvement. Even under the impact of the epidemic in 2020, the proportion of outbound tourists with complaints continued to decline. This is due to the tolerance and understanding of outbound tourists, as well as the efforts and contributions of outbound destinations to improve their competitiveness.

In 2019, 31.66% of outbound tourists complained about their travels, while 68.34% did not. In the first half of 2020, 28.74% of outbound tourists complained about their travels, while 71.27% did not. Overall, Chinese tourists are relatively satisfied with their outbound travels.

Judgment and outlook for the future: The future is still bright, and now is the time to act

Judging from the current global epidemic prevention and control situation, the COVID-19 epidemic is showing a more obvious imbalance. Some have been effectively controlled, some are still spreading, and in other cases, the epidemic that has been alleviated has suddenly worsened. Most destinations are still cautious in general. Even if it is opened, the current administrative procedures for crossing the border will be more complicated than before, and the security inspection will be stricter. Due to the imbalance of the epidemic prevention and control situation and the inability to meet the needs of safety, my country is currently not open to cross-border tourism, including outbound tourism. On October 21, 2020, the "Notice of the General Office of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism on Further Strengthening the Epidemic Prevention and Control Work in Autumn and Winter" was officially released. It is clear that travel agencies and online travel companies will not resume inbound and outbound group travel and "air ticket + hotel" business for the time being.

The future recovery and development of my country's outbound tourism depends on the combined effect of multiple factors. There are the epidemic prevention and control situation, changes in the international environment and the economic prosperity, as well as changes in people's mental models, changes in social and economic structures, and the development and progress of science and technology. Among them, there are fundamental factors and long-term factors, as well as influencing factors and short-term factors. Various factors are intertwined and have a common impact.

It must be noted that China's positive social and economic development trend has not changed, China's determination and strength in opening up to the outside world has not changed, and the Chinese people's yearning for a better life has not changed. This means that the fundamental logic of the development of outbound tourism has not changed.

Epidemic prevention and control has entered the normal stage, but the pressure of preventing imported cases and domestic rebound is still great. People's life safety and health need to be put first at all times. Whether outbound tourism or inbound tourism is reopened, it depends on the global epidemic prevention and control situation.

Judging from the epidemic prevention and control situation, the trend may be stable and improving next year. The worst moment has passed, and the best moment has not yet arrived. Major destination countries and regions are eager to resume opening up, but they must not take unnecessary risks when the time is not right. In the long run, outbound tourism will be open sooner or later, and the impact of the current COVID-19 epidemic will not change the positive momentum of outbound tourism.

Willingness to move forward and more positive actions

The consumption behavior characteristics of outbound tourists and their views on destination satisfaction still determine the competitiveness of a destination to a considerable extent. Whether it is overseas destinations, market players, or other relevant parties, there is room for improvement.

It is even more necessary for all parties to hold hands and not let go. Maintain close communication in relevant fields, share experiences, and respond to each other's concerns in a timely manner. From source areas, destinations to market players, more attention should be paid to common concerns, and efforts should be made to recover and develop the market, and move in the same direction.

This includes actively and cautiously exploring the possibility of small-scale, easily controllable cross-border safe tourism. The conditions for opening up should be studied and explored, which can be a mature joint prevention and control mechanism, a record of "zero export" of cases between the two countries, being important sources and destinations for tourists to each other, and having sufficient reception capacity.

Continue to innovate in marketing and product development. China's domestic tourism market is recovering at an accelerated pace, and also shows a preference for safe and healthy products. The consumption preferences of the domestic tourism market are likely to be passed on to the future outbound tourism market. Safety, health and quality will receive widespread attention and attention. During this period, domestic destinations and high-end tourism products that have grown and evolved and have formed strong competitiveness and influence will have a substitution effect to a considerable extent, affecting the attractiveness of some outbound destinations and similar outbound tourism products. In this sense, the future Chinese outbound market will be more picky about destinations and tourism products, and will prefer high-quality product supply. This requires market players to reasonably plan the promotion focus and corresponding product supply strategies in different stages such as during and after the epidemic according to the situation of epidemic prevention and control in my country and the world and the changes in tourists' mental models. Focus on promoting overseas destinations with high safety, high satisfaction and high attractiveness, as well as a series of characteristic outbound tourism products.

While minimizing the safety and health risks of outbound tourism, we should also ensure the convenience of outbound tourism as much as possible. The introduction of appropriate technology is an important aspect to ensure the normal development of outbound tourism.

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