Morning Consult: COVID-19’s impact on holiday shopping in Europe

The epidemic is becoming increasingly severe across the European continent, and some European countries are preparing for a "dark winter."

New research conducted between October 15 and 17 among 1,000 adults in each of the UK, Spain, France, Italy, Germany and Poland aims to shed light on ongoing concerns about the coronavirus. With anxiety heightened due to recent lockdowns, the sense of nostalgia, joy or relief that the holidays may bring will drive conversions for brands in key European markets this quarter.

COVID-19 will have a major impact on the 2020 holiday season for 71% of European consumers and their families. However, only 43% of Germans think so. 67% of Europeans think COVID-19 will have a major impact on their holiday shopping decisions this year, with Germans being the exception (only 41% think so).

If and how will it be celebrated?

A large majority of Europeans acknowledged that there will be fewer holiday gatherings this year than in previous years and that their traditions and ways of celebrating the holidays will also change because of the pandemic, although these sentiments are weaker in France, Germany and Poland.

The Spanish and French, as well as many in the UK, are more likely to cancel their usual holiday gatherings altogether this year. In the months leading up to the holidays, more than half of Spanish, French and Polish people worry about their job security, while Germans are significantly less worried (28%).

Whether and how to consume

During this holiday season, an average of two-thirds of Europeans plan to spend less, compare prices, and buy fewer holiday gifts. In addition, financial distress and concerns caused by the economic downturn will translate into different holiday shopping behaviors in the European market:

• Spanish and Italians are most likely to cut back on gifts.
• While Italians are likely to have lower incomes this year compared to last, Germans are likely to have much lower incomes or unemployment this year; the difference reflects the different approaches these countries have taken to handling COVID-19.
• Polish consumers are more likely to plan to give experiential gifts rather than physical gifts this year, as well as reduce personal debt; again, Germans are least likely to do so.

Where will you shop?

While UK consumers are more likely to do the majority of their holiday shopping online this year (49%), with Poles relying primarily on in-store shopping (47%), other EU markets are less clear-cut.

Gifts purchased and given

European markets and the UK are split on whether gifts will be sent to loved ones but not in person: most Spanish, French and Polish consumers plan to send gifts in person, but more Germans and British plan to send gifts by post.

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