Will we experience more cold snaps this winter?

In the past November, my country encountered three rounds of cold waves, which was significantly more than usual. However, surprisingly, the average temperature in most parts of central and eastern my country in November was higher than the same period in previous years. Why is it that the temperature is warmer when there are more cold waves? In the context of global warming, how have the cold waves affecting my country changed? Will we experience more cold waves this winter?

Since the second half of this year, there have been four rounds of cold waves, which are significantly more than usual.

In October and November this year, my country experienced four rounds of cold waves in succession, which was significantly more than the same period in previous years.

From October 15 to 17, the first cold wave since the second half of this year arrived early, and the Central Meteorological Observatory issued the first cold wave blue warning since the second half of the year. The temperature in the north plummeted, with Beijing's lowest temperature dropping to minus 0.1℃ on October 17, breaking the record for the same period since 1969. After this round of cold wave, netizens invented a new Internet buzzword - Chunxiaxiudong.

From November 6 to 9, the second round of cold wave hit strongly. The Central Meteorological Observatory upgraded its warning and issued the first yellow warning for cold wave in the second half of this year. The first snowfall in many places in North China was a blizzard. Tongliao, Inner Mongolia, suffered the strongest blizzard since meteorological records began, and the temperature of 1.01 million square kilometers of land dropped by more than 16 degrees Celsius.

From November 22 to 23, the third round of cold waves followed. Although slightly weaker than the previous round, the affected areas of this cold wave process overlapped with the previous round, so the superposition effect was obvious. Heavy to extremely heavy snowstorms occurred in northeastern Heilongjiang, and the depth of snow accumulation generally reached 25 to 49 centimeters.

From November 29 to December 1, the fourth round of cold wave "came online", affecting mainly East China and the eastern part of Northeast China. The temperature in Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Fujian and other places dropped by more than 10℃, and strong winds of more than level 8 appeared along the coast of East China. The eastern part of Northeast China suffered the third round of heavy snowfall since the second half of this year, and the local snow depth in Heilongjiang exceeded 50 cm.

Will we experience more cold snaps this winter?

On November 27, the National Climate Center officially announced that the equatorial central and eastern Pacific entered a La Nina state in October 2021, and a weak to moderate La Nina event is expected to form in winter. According to historical data, the temperature in central and eastern my country in winter during La Nina years is often low. So, the question is, will we experience more cold waves next?

According to the forecast of the National Climate Center, the temperature in my country this winter (December 2021 to February 2022) will be generally cold, with large fluctuations in temperature within the season. In December 2021, except for the Northeast and eastern Inner Mongolia, the temperature in most parts of the country will be close to or higher than the same period of previous years. However, the cold air activity will significantly intensify from January to February 2022, and the temperature in most parts of central and eastern my country may be lower than the same period of previous years. There is a high possibility of periodic extreme cooling events. Periodic strong cooling and heavy snowfall may occur in the Northeast, North China, eastern Northwest China, northern Xinjiang and other places.

Zhou Bing, chief of climate services at the National Climate Center, also said in an interview with the media recently that at present, the center of the cold vortex located in the Arctic Pole tends to lean toward the Eastern Hemisphere. Therefore, the number of cold waves may further increase from January to February next year.

November, a month of frequent cold waves, has passed, but the real cold has not yet arrived.

Editor: fr